Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Presidential Polling Update and Key State Forecasts: Race Tightens, But....

Still too early to tell whether Trump's weak debate performance stopped his momentum!

Note: I'll be on air live Thursday morning in the 8 o'clock hour with AM Savannah host Bill Edwards. Listen live here.

Last week it was Democrat panic time in the days leading up to the first presidential debate. But after Monday's performance the big question is has Hillary's slide stopped or not? It's clear Trump failed to take advantage of the opportunity to reach voters who previously have not been paying attention in the record setting viewership debate.

Lester Holt, the moderator of the debate, repeatedly challenged Trump but failed to challenge Hillary. As columnist Byron York said "The Clinton team wanted to distract him, to keep him on topics that hurt him — and away from topics that hurt her. They succeeded." And they had a ready accomplice in the moderator.

If Trump had made a stronger case instead of getting sucked into a discussion of his business dealings and other matters that pale in comparison to the grave issues at stake we might be having an altogether different discussion today. But we are not.

Note that we do not yet have a full set of polls, nationally or in states that reflect the debate so the following discussion is predicated on conditions that existed prior to the event.

In the Real Clear Politics average of national presidential polls the gap between Trump and Hillary which was less than a point ten days ago is more than 2 points. No great amount but let's follow later polls to see where the trend takes us.

Besides, it's the state by state races that matter when deciding the winner. Over the last few weeks there has been clear movement towards Trump in key states. Some which had previously been leaning towards Hillary are now tossups.

Forecasting website 538 updated their map on Wednesday with this prediction:

The most recent map has changed from a previous forecast of 55-45% in favor of Hillary. Is this the end of the recent Trump bump? Stay tuned.

Pay special attention in the map above to the states outlined in black. Each retains their status as a tossup which could go either way but some are more tossup than others. The following chart lists Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling averages in key states and 538 forecast. Click the link on individual results to study polling results and forecast in greater detail. Also note the results from three previous presidential elections:

Will Trump's spike in Pennsylvania
Big takeaways from the above chart above is that Florida is essentially tied and Ohio has moved into safer territory for Trump. But biggest change has been in Pennsylvania where Trump has narrowed the gap significantly. Check out the graph of RCP averages for PA at right.

If that trend continues and Trump wins Pennsylvania then it's likely Hillary will lose the election and lose big. But consider the history of Pennsylvania voters in previous presidential elections. No Republican candidate for President has won Pennsylvania since 1988.

Hillary Retains Organizational Advantage

It's the superior ground game with a huge Democrat advantage in field staff and headquarters in key states that has enabled them to win close elections in key states. Unless Trump is up by more than 3 points in key states I would be very reluctant to say he was safe in those states. Keep the following graphic in mind as we approach election day. It illustrates the advantage Hillary has in registering new voters and getting them to the polls:

Take the initiative and make sure your friends, family and associates are registered. Especially if they live in the key states above. Many states allow online registration but the deadline is fast approaching. Don't wait until it is too late!

Monday, September 26, 2016

Mike's Debate Prediction: Media Will Declare Hillary Winner if She Manages to Stand and Not Cough Uncontrollably

Her answers won't matter. The media expects her to lie and doesn't care!

Smaller podium Hillary will use may leave Hillary looking diminished next to Trump but none of that will matter if she is actually able to stand without passing out or coughing during 90 minute debate.

Debate podiums being prepared for Monday's first presidential debate.
Expect the same media that marveled over Trump in early primary process to turn on him with a vengeance. No one disses the media's queen and gets away with it!

UPDATE: Hillary Won Debate with Moderator Help

Giving Hillary a pat on the back after the debate.  More at Daily Mail.
When the transcript is released we can count the number of times that the moderator Lester Holt, of NBC News interrupted Trump and asked him pointed questions about his taxes, stop and frisk and the whole range of issues. Hillary got few interruptions, only one question about her email and nothing about Benghazi, pay to play with the Clinton Foundation or anything that might remotely be embarrassing to Hillary or difficult for her campaign. Twitter users are calling Holt the "third debater."

When people say the fix is in with these kinds of events, this is what they mean.

I would credit Hillary with being better prepared and able to keep Trump on defense but without the willing assistance of the moderator that effort would not have succeeded!

UPDATE: Trump's Missed Opportunity

A few points of further reflection the following day:

There is no doubt Trump left ammunition on the table. Hillary and the moderator had an easy time changing the subject to Trump and his ego took the bait. What's more important? Trump's tax returns or the hundreds of thousands of dead Syrian, Iraqi and Americans who have been slaughtered as a result of Hillary's foreign policy failures?

Why was Trump challenged on his stance regarding the Iraq war but Hillary Clinton, who as a U.S. Senator VOTED FOR the war got a pass?

What's more important: a minor issue of a Trump corporate bankruptcy or the economic failure of the Obama/Clinton years affecting millions of Americans?

Why were there no questions on Benghazi or the Clinton Foundation pay for play scandal?

Clearly, Lester Holt, the most biased moderator of a presidential debate in recent memory, wasn't going to ask these questions. It was up to Trump to insert them into the discussion and he failed to do it because he found himself on defense.

Trump missed a vital opportunity to reach millions of Americans who may only now be tuning into presidential politics. That opportunity may not come again!

It was two against one on Monday as Moderator Holt clearly worked to help Hillary!

Friday, September 23, 2016

All Politics: Charlotte Protests w/ Largely Out of State Arrests. Hillary Backers Funding. Compare to Oklahoma

Hillary has to get the black vote to win in North Carolina. She can't win in Oklahoma, hence, quiet protests!

UPDATE: Dead man's fingerprints, DNA and blood found on gun at the scene. But don't expect the protesters to care. They accepted and spread the lie that he was unarmed just as they have after other shootings.

North Carolina is one of Hillary Clinton's firewall states in the upcoming presidential election. Obama won the state in 2008 and narrowly lost in 2012. If Hillary can pull the state safely into her column then it's unlikely Trump could assemble the electoral vote total needed to win nationwide. She's currently behind by less than two points in the Real Clear Politics average. With the Democrat's  superior get out the vote ground game she's got a real shot.

Any event in that state which supports her effort is a good thing. Nothing better than racial unrest to gin up anger in the black community that she can tap. After all, she can't run on the Obama/Clinton economic record in the black community. Fear and anger is all she's got!

Keith Lamont Scott (left) shot and killed by Charlotte Police Officer Brently Vinson an exemplary
officer whose father was also a policeman with Charlotte. Vinson is one of the good guys.
Here he is giving ice cream to children in July.
It didn't matter that the cop who shot and killed Keith Lamont Scott is black. It didn't matter that Scott had a long arrest record for using guns in the commission of a crime. Scott was also arrested for assaulting a 12 year old child. So much for Dem's claim to protect children and concern over use of firearms.

Once again, protesters pushed facts aside and turned the shooting into a racial issue. Protesters carried signs accusing whites of complicity for not speaking out. Claims of white racism was a common theme among the protesters.

And curiously enough, the protests which started Tuesday in the neighborhood in which Scott was killed moved several miles away to the downtown section of Charlotte that had no connection to the shooting. But it's where the money and the media are.

70% of those arrested were out of state!

Just like Ferguson, Missouri where violent rabble-rousers were bused in funded by shadowy left wing billionaire George Soros, a Clinton supporter 70% of those arrested in at protests in Charlotte had out of state IDs.

Curiously, the protests in Oklahoma, where a black man was shot and killed by a white cop have been largely peaceful and quiet. No political gain to be had in that state which will vote overwhelmingly for Trump in the fall.

Once again a tragic circumstance is being used by the left to advance a political agenda. It doesn't even matter that racism was not an issue here. They know the big lie they tell will carry the day!

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Psycho Hillary: "Why Aren't I 50 Points Ahead?"

Look at her eyes. What is wrong with this woman?

There is something seriously wrong with Hillary Clinton. Watch this:

If she shows up at the debate next Monday with that dead eye stare this election will be over by Wednesday!

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

VOTER REGISTRATION ALERT! Take the Initiative and Urge Family and Friends to Register Before Deadline

Trump supporters must reach out to family and friends NOW!

Welcome WTKS AM-1290 FM 97.7 listeners!

Note to regular readers: I'm scheduled to be on the radio with AM Savannah host Bill Edwards Wednesday morning in the 8 AM hour. You can listen live at the link provided here.

I expect that most readers at Mike's America and listeners at AM Savannah are already registered to vote and have re-registered if they moved since they last voted. But each of us is likely to have friends or family members who have not.

Don't wait for the Trump campaign to call and remind you. See the post below which shows how weak the Trump campaign effort is in that regard and recall how two of Trump's own children, Eric and Ivanka, failed to vote for their father in the New York primary because they did not register before the deadline.

In Georgia, you must register before October 11th. You can do so online with a Georgia driver's license. You can also check your registration.

In South Carolina, voters must register before October 8th. Voters may also register online with a South Carolina driver's license and check their registration.

Voters can also contact their local Board of Elections and sign up in person or by mail.

Do you have friends and family in other states who may not be registered? Call and remind them that the deadline is fast approaching and urge them to go online or call their local board of elections to make sure they are registered for their new address.

For Trump to win, his campaign must overcome a well financed and experienced Clinton vote machine. Do your part and make sure family and friends are registered and that they vote. Early voting in many states begins soon. Don't wait!

Presidential Race Tightens in Advance of First Presidential Debate Next Monday

Trump has a real shot but Hillary retains a strong organizational advantage!

A month ago Democrats were feeling very cocky about Hillary Clinton's chances in the November election. Things were going their way; Hillary had a nice lead in nearly every national poll and was doing well in state polls. Writing in the New York Times Nate Cohn asked "Is It Over?" Does Hillary have it in the bag? MSNBC speculated that Republicans were feeling a "sense of dread."

Oh how quick things change! Hiding Hillary's obvious health problems fueled negative impressions about her candidacy already dogged by the impression she lied about Benghazi, lied about her emails and now lies about her health. It's no wonder that poll after poll, like the recent Quinnipiac shows most Americans don't trust her or that a recent CNN poll shows they trust Trump more.

Now in mid-September the New York Times takes a new tone with an article titled "Hillary Clinton’s Backers Thought She Couldn’t Lose. Now, ‘I Can’t Go There." Desperate Democrats were interviewed at New York City hot  spot Zabar's Deli in which the impression of being "overwhelmed by a tsunami of unease," seemed to be the prevailing sentiment.

Doyle McManus in the Los Angeles Times recalls this conversation from 2008: “I’ve known Hillary for many years, ever since she came to Arkansas,” former Sen. Dale Bumpers told me. “She’ll find a way to screw it up. She always does.”

Trump Momentum?

Here's the latest average of national polling from Real Clear Politics:

Conflicting results from the two major tracking polls confuse the issue. NBC Survey Monkey tracking poll gives Hillary the edge by five points. But LA Times tracker shows Trump up by five.

LA Times tracking poll.
The difference between the two tracking polls is the assumptions polling analysts make about turnout and enthusiasm. The LA Times poll weights the result towards the respondent who is more likely to vote for their candidate.

Hillary Retains Electoral College Advantage

Hillary starts the contest to win individual states with a definite advantage. Real Clear Politics (RCP)Electoral College Map forecasts her with 200 electoral votes compared to 164 for Trump. You need 270 to win. RCP let's users do their own calculations and create their own map.

The L.A. Times map has fewer toss up states than the RCP map and forecasts the likely outcome being 279 for Hillary and 191 for Trump. I believe Trump has a good chance to win the tossup states of Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida on the Times' map but that would still leave him short of 270.

L.A. Times Electoral College Map gives Hillary advantage.
The New York Times has an excellent set of graphics displaying polling for key states. Use it along with state polls from Real Clear Politics to do your own state by state analysis.

Hillary has Superior Ground Game

In a close election, what puts you over the finish line is having the organization on the ground in key states to get your voters registered and make sure they get to early voting centers, vote by absentee ballot or show up on election day. It's no secret that Democrats, starting with Obama in 2008 have invested a huge amount of money in key states to make that happen.

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a significant money advantage over Trump. And she's spending it. Forget the campaign ads, look how Hillary outpsends Trump in key states on staff to register and get those voters to the polls. Here's the graphic from a PBS NewsHour study of campaign spending:

Want to know what difference this makes? Read this from Evan Halper in the L.A. Times:
Hillary Clinton is using her fundraising dominance to unleash all manner of modern voter tools that Donald Trump’s organization is too cash-poor, disorganized or uninterested in to use — but are they worth the massive price tag?
Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, once described this part of the campaign as an elite “field goal unit” there to push the team over the top in a close race. Obama would probably have lost Florida in both his presidential races without a superior “ground game.” And in 2008, research suggests he would have been defeated in North Carolina and Indiana, too.
Clinton is pouring money — from a war chest expected to grow to $1 billion by election day — into a massive push to find and motivate voters who might have even the slightest inclination to vote for her. Since April, Clinton’s team has sent thousands of volunteers to dozens of field offices in crucial swing states and armed them with software designed to get voters invested in casting ballots. The programs compose personalized follow-up emails and texts from the canvasser, catered to the specific interests of the voters they chat up.
Read the entire article. One political scientist estimates that this ground game gives Hillary a 3 point advantage in key states similar to what we have seen in other close elections. This is NOT something that should be dismissed lightly. Yes, states Trump needs to win have seen a surge in new GOP voter registrations but how many more are being left out because the Trump campaign organization fails to registered them in time? Two of Trump's own children, Eric and Ivanka, failed to vote for their father in the New York primary because they were not registered before the deadline.

First Debate Monday, September 26

Debates may decide the race. If Trump can outshine Hillary he may fuel the enthusiasm his campaign needs to overwhelm the Clinton voter machine. If the debates are a tie, or Hillary is a clear winner then the ground game will decide the key states needed to win.

Here's the debate schedule.

The bottom line is that Hillary's strong financial, electoral map and ground game gives her a clear advantage. Trump would have to win all the tossup states plus one stronger Hillary state in order to win. A strong debate performance may help Trump overcome these disadvantages but it's going to be a hard uphill climb!

Monday, September 19, 2016

More Muslim Migrants Go on Jihad Rampage with String of Bombings and Knife Attacks

Why do Hillary Clinton and Obama let in MORE Muslim refugees?

You heard the news over the weekend. Multiple bombs in the New York and New Jersey area, fortunately most did not detonate and no one was killed though dozens were injured. The bomber, who was later apprehended, is Ahmad Khan Rahami a refugee from Afghanistan. He had been arrested for gun crimes and violence, had traveled to Afghanistan to Taliban areas and had shown clear signs of radicalizing yet was not on any terror watch list.

In St. Cloud Minnesota, a Somali refugee went on a stabbing rampage specifically targeting non-Muslims.

Meanwhile, Obama could not bring himself to describe these events as acts of terror. And Hillary Clinton blamed Donald Trump claiming he is a "recruiting sergeant for the terrorists."

After eight years of the Obama/Clinton policy of trying to placate radical Islam (perhaps we should just use the word appease) it's difficult to imagine how the massive spike in recent terror attacks can be traced to anything but a failure of the Obama/Clinton anti-whatever they call it, policy.

Obama continues to insist we need not be concerned about a new wave of Muslim immigrants while Hillary suggests we should increase the numbers by about 500%.

Terror attacks in the United States have been increasing in frequency since Obama became President.
Whether it was the Fort Hood or Chattanooga shootings, Boston Marathon bombings, San Bernadino or Orlando shootings and now this the common thread is that the perpetrators are all radical Muslims. Most were immigrants or refugees.

Obviously the policies of his Administration to stop those attacks have failed. Hillary Clinton played a key role in implementing the foreign and national security policy to address these issues. It isn't Trump who is the best friend that terrorists have but Obama and Clinton!

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Mike's America On the Ground in Ohio

Encouraging Trump supporters to REGISTER and VOTE!

REAL Americans vote for TRUMP!
I bumped into these proud patriotic, hard working, gun toting, God fearing REAL Americans outside the Wood County Courthouse in Bowling Green, Ohio on Wednesday. They're all set to vote for Trump but I handed them a few voter registration forms to sign up friends and family too!

And in the few days since I arrived it appears Trump has gotten a boost in this all important state:

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Hillary Can't Hide from Health Questions After Fainting in Public at Brief Morning Ceremony

UPDATE: Is her campaign lying about the video? Oh, the irony of being brought down by lying about another video!

On top of the last two weeks in which her campaign seemed to stall, this will raise new issues about her ability to serve as Commander in Chief!

Law enforcement source described a "medical event" in which Hillary Clinton was rushed from the scene of a 9/11 memorial event in New York City. Instead of a hospital, she went to her daughter Chelsea's nearby apartment and was taken later to her home in Chappaqua.

After her campaign pressured the media not to pursue stories about her health. At the Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza dutifully complied writing five days ago "Can we just stop talking about Hillary Clinton’s health now?" In that column any question about Hillary's health was "ridiculous" and said there was "zero evidence that anything is seriously wrong with Clinton." He's changed his tune today writing: "Hillary Clinton’s health just became a real issue in the presidential campaign."

Watch as Hillary clearly props herself up against a post before stumbling in the way into the van.

Her departure was of such an urgent nature that it violated Secret Service protocols and her shoe came off as she was pushed into the van. One senior law enforcement official told the Daily Beast “They threw her in like she was a side of beef.”

It's unlikely that the Hillary campaign, which can't be honest about her emails or her family's foundation will now be forthright about her health issues. But the evidence is there for all to see. If she stumbles in the debates with Trump it will be game over despite any plea for sympathy. Will she play the helpless female card?

UPDATE: Hillary schedule has few appearances by candidate. Days go by when there's not a public event with Hillary. Is something seriously wrong with her?

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Vet at NBC Forum Tells Hillary: "You Clearly Corrupted Our National Security"

Vet adds that he would be in jail if he had done what she did!

Hillary is having a harder time hiding from her appalling email scandal. The Trump campaign should make this into a television advertisement and run it in every swing state!

“As a naval flight officer, I held a top secret sensitive compartmentalized information clearance, and that provided me access to materials and information highly sensitive to our war-fighting capabilities. Had I communicated this information not following prescribed protocols, I would have been prosecuted and imprisoned. Secretary Clinton, how can you expect those such as myself, who were and are entrusted with America’s most sensitive information to have any confidence in your leadership as president, when you clearly corrupted our national security?”

A History of Air Force One and President Bush on September 11th

It's a story of a real Commander in Chief and the people with him that day!

It's a long but very interesting read at Politico in the words of the people who were there.
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