There's so many new polls and other great stories coming out in the final weeks of this campaign it will be impossible to do justice to them all with a blog post. The best way to get the news out is to link to the original story in Twitter.
You can page down the Twitter box in the left sidebar, but that will only give you the last seven Tweets. Make sure to click the link for the full feed here to catch up.
Here are some highlights of what has come along today:
- New Poll Shows Rossi Leading Murrary: http://ow.ly/2Q8zr
- More good signs for the GOP: 14-pt enthusiasm advantage in latest Pew poll is twice as big as in '94. http://bit.ly/b9qwiA
- Rasmussen's latest in Nevada: Angle 50, Reid 46. http://bit.ly/99Y9FF (that's three in a row with Angle edging past Reid).
- HOUSE: 79 races squarely in play, 72 of them held by Democrats. Other competitive races just missing the cutoff mark. http://bit.ly/aKW6Rp
- Democrats' False Optimism - Hotline On Call http://t.co/gAEy2rf
- http://on.wsj.com/bQR1Rk GOP needs to hammer harder on repeal and replace!
The Obama Rope-a-dopeHow to Keep Up with Poll Frenzy
By Victor Davis Hanson
Real Clear Politics
October 7, 2010
After 2010, will he be Carter or Clinton?
That is the ongoing parlor game now played among pundits over how President Obama will react to a probable shellacking of the Democrats in midterm elections next month.
Jimmy Carter stuck to his liberal agenda after suffering a modest rebuke in the 1978 midterms amid sky-high inflation, interest rates and unemployment. He didn't take voters' hint and went on to get clobbered two years later by Ronald Reagan.
In contrast, after his party was slaughtered in the 1994 midterms (losing 51 House and eight Senate seats), a triangulating Bill Clinton moved to the center and handily won re-election in 1996.
So what will Obama do if he loses a Democratic majority in the House and quite possibly the Senate, as his approval ratings tank to 40 percent?
Most likely, he will stick to his liberal orthodoxy -- but in a way unlike Carter. Yet, like Clinton, Obama may still have a good chance at re-election.
Here's why.
...
if Republicans take over Congress, they -- not Obama -- can be blamed for the failure to enact the liberal dream. Obama can nostalgically soar with hope-and-change platitudes about his aborted left-wing vision, with the assurance that there is absolutely no chance he will offend the majority of Americans by seeing any of it passed.
Overseas, much of the reset Obama foreign policy either stalled or simply reverted back to the policies of George W. Bush. Iran and North Korea are more anti-American -- and loonier -- than ever before. China is pushing around its neighbors in a way not seen just a few years ago. Russia hasn't helped stop the likely Iranian bomb. We can say that Cuba, Syria and Venezuela sound more friendly, but they still act like enemies. Iran, Afghanistan and anti-terrorism policies are simply Bush policy rehashes.
A new rejectionist Republican Congress will probably ensure that Obama's therapeutic outreach abroad proves harmless. In turn, the president can safely blame "reactionaries" for blocking more of his utopian foreign-policy initiatives, while his political advisors privately express relief that they did.
If Democrats get clobbered in November, expect just such a passive rope-a-dope strategy, different from the last two years of either the Carter term or the first Clinton term. Obama will let Republicans punch themselves out at the nation's problems, hoping they expend energy and incur blood. Then, as things improve, he can come alive to brag in 2012 that the upturn would have been even better had he not been stopped by right-wing obstructionists.
The mellifluent-talking Obama will do far better if his agenda remains hope-and-change banter instead of becoming messy and costly law. Republicans will try to ensure both -- and thereby may save Obama from himself.
Real Clear Politics continues to update the latest polling information for races across the country several times a day. Check this link for the latest. To get the full picture of an individual race, click the link for that state on the RCP map (Senate, Gov, House)
You might also want to check the analysis at Pollster.com. Pollster uses a different mode of analysis than the RCP poll averages. And for real numbers freaks, the liberal analyst Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight offers the most in-depth (and non partisan) race by race number crunching.
No Letup in GOP Wave!
If you have been following the Mike's America Twitter Feed, you might have seen the article by Josh Kraushaar in the National Journal Hotline: Democrats' False Optimism. Kraushaar debunks the narrative that the New York Times and other newspapers tried to start last weekend suggesting a Democrat comeback was in the works. Sorry Dems, it ain't happening.
If anything, the GOP wave is growing. The enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans remains huge. Races that were once Dem favored, which later became tossups are now moving to GOP favored. This is especially true in Wisconsin, where Republican Ron Johnson's lead over incumbent Senator Russ Feingold (D) is edging into double digits. And the latest polls for the Florida Senate seat show Marco Rubio(R) entering solid double digit territory in that three way race.
In Washington state, in which the incumbent Patty Murray (D) was favored to win, Dino Rossi has pulled ahead with a very narrow lead. in one of the latest polls. In West Virginia, the very popular Democrat Governor Joe Manchin is falling victim to Obama's appalling low approval rating of around 29%. His GOP challenger John Raese is building a lead in the latest polls.
The Bad News
In the Delaware Senate race, I was hoping to see some narrowing in the lead held by the avowed Marxist Chris Coons (D). It's not happening for GOP challenger Christine O'Donnell and time is running out. A double digit deficit in the polls at this point in any race is probably fatal. The same is true in races in Connecticut and New York.
Nail Biting Time in CA, IL, NV
I'm still waiting for some newer polls from the California Senate race which has narrowed to a four point lead for Barbara Boxer(D) over Carly Fiorina(R). Fiorina has started to show some recovery from a recent slump but can she catch up to Boxer who hovers around 49%?
In Illinois, for the seat formerly held by President Obama Mark Kirk(R) has a very narrow lead over the Dem.
In Nevada, Sharron Angle (R) has edged past Harry Reid (D) in the last three polls. Reid is still caught with polls averaging at 43% which is presumed fatal to an incumbent but the race is still very tight. However, some recent momentum for Angle may be the death knell for Harry "this war is lost" Reid.
Bottom Line: Big GOP win in House, Possible Senate Takeover
More cautious analysts like Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia gives Republicans control of the House of Representatives with a 47 seat pickup in November. But National Journal rates 79 races in play, nearly all of them Dem seats. Others like Dick Morris point out that we don't even have polling in most of these congressional races and it's entirely possible that the GOP could mount an effective challenge in 100 races.
Had RINO Mike Castle won the GOP Senate primary in Delaware I'd say we were on our way to retaking the Senate in November. We can still pull it off, but to do so means we can't afford to lose any of the close races. Sharron Angle has to be the #1 priority race. Followed by races in Illinois, Washington state and West Virginia.
Are You Ready for the Wave?
Above all, don't take victory for granted. Winning depends on YOU getting your friends, family members and associates to the polls. Time is past to register new voters, but you can help others to submit applications for absentee ballots. Talk to friends and family about the election and offer to go with them to vote on election day.
It's your turn to show what being an American really means. Don't be left out!
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